$100,000 SMART HALO STAKES AT LAUREL PARK
The Lead:
A pair of 2-year-old stakes highlight the racing action Saturday at Laurel
Park, the $100,000 James F. Lewis for the boys in Race 6 and the $100,000 Smart
Halo for the fillies in Race 7. Both are 6-furlong sprints in open company and
have diverse fields across several circuits. But familiarity with a particular
region puts me on the Smart Halo has the more confident look.
Field Depth:
This field of 8 doesn’t include any stakes winners, and 5 runners will be
trying stakes company for the first time. It certainly has the feel for a class
riser.
Pace:
LETSSTAYPOSITIVE is very fast from the rail. SUMMER CHURCH and ILCHESTER
CHEETAH also have enough early zip to make the front. The pace should be honest
to quick, but you expect that with 2-year-olds in a 6-furlong stakes. The filly
with the best finishing kick should get the last call.
Our Eyes:
LETSSTAYPOSITIVE was offered for the $75,000 claiming price in her last start
at Keeneland and changed hands after setting the pace in a short field of 5 and
being caught in mid-stretch by 2-5 favorite Complexifier, a quality filly for
Brian Lynch. There wasn’t much behind LETSTAYPOSITIVE in that race, and her
victory at 4-1/2 furlongs in the Keeneland Spring Meet sort of is a
rubber-stamp for former trainer Wesley Ward. She’s had only 1 work at Churchill
Downs for Michelle Lovell since the claim.
COFACTOR visually impressed me the way he kept coming to win a Keeneland allowance
October 16 in a field of 10, but the time was disappointing and a slower race
than LETSTAYPOSITIVE from the next day’s card. But COFACTOR has trained well at
Laurel with 2 works since and has been pointed here shrewdly. Her sire The
Factor has a strong 19% win rate with his offspring on the Laurel dirt,
including A Different Style, who won the 2017 James F. Lewis over this same
trip at age 2. In fact, The Factor’s strike rate is 25% with his offspring at 6
furlongs on Laurel’s dirt from 24 starters, and his current crop of
Laurel-raced 2YOs are 7: 2-3-1 with all finishing in the superfecta.
SUMMER FORTUNE debuted a winner at Belmont on October 20 in a 6-1/2 furlong
sprint that slowed considerably late. It was a field of first-time starters
(all but 1), and the close pursuers haven’t run back yet to get a good gauge on
the group. There are no published workouts since the debut score 27 days in
front of the Smart Halo. Sire Violence hasn’t had much success (4-37) with
Laurel dirt starters, so there may be some reasons to take a stand against a
Jeremiah Englehart trainee likely to be bet with interest by the simulcast
audience.
A quartet of locals will be tasked with defending the home team: LUCKY TRINITY,
a debut maiden claiming winner for the white-hot barn of Claudio Gonzalez; the
Jeremiah O’Dwyer-trained pair of CRUISE AND DANZE and ILCHESTER CHEETAH, the
latter a more accomplished 3-for-4 lifetime; and ALWAYS SOMETHING, winless in 4
Laurel tries surrounding a Colonial turf sprint win. Given the pace set-up,
it’s the maiden claiming debut grad LUCKY TRINITY who may interest most of that
bunch. She finished well in her first start and will have pace in front of her.
The others could get mixed up in chase-and-fade mode.
Most Certain Exotics Contender: COFACTOR has the right running
style and has trained over the track.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender: STILL ALIVE likely will be
overlooked with the Keeneland and Belmont invaders. Her Parx form has been up
and down, and not particularly fast. But she’s got foundation, cuts back in
distance and fired her best career effort the last time she was asked to bounce
back from a subpar effort.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 win COFACTOR. $10 exacta
COFACTOR over STILL ALIVE.
