End of Season races have to be looked at closely to ensure you are not backing tired horses but with two Group 2yo races in the form of the Cheveley and Middle Park there isn’t much fear of that and of course trainers have laid out their Cambridgeshire horse for today so they are all spot on.
We also see the first signs of some quality jumps racing with a hurdle and chase for big money at Market Rasen. It’s an exciting days punting.
2:20 Newmarket – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m
An interesting start to proceedings and this race is best analysed by a process of elimination. So let’s start with Montataire and Sea Fox. The last 10 years says this race has been won by a horse who hasn’t raced more than four times and typically only twice in it’s life. That rules these two out. You then need to have run to an RPR of at least 102 and that rules out Bay of Poets, Kings Gift and Anvil which leaves us with Arcada who was 2 lengths behind Churchill last time out but might have done all his 2yo improving, Douglas Macarthur whose last run was his best and over this trip and ran the highest figure so far and Best of Days. We will side with Best of Days who has only raced twice and is bred to enjoy this mile even more than the 7f at York
2 units e/w Best of Days
2:35 Market Rasen Prelude Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m148y
The starting point in this highly prized early season hurdle is with the unbeaten Red Tornado who ran to a great mark when winning the listed contest here back in July and for whom the conditions hold no fears. He is highly thought of by the Skelton’s and could well come on again for this outing. Stuart Edmonds runs Cloonacool, last year’s winner and he is no back number on his previous hurdles form but this is probably a tune up for an early season chase win. Thunder Sheik for Nigel Twiston Davies is interesting and whilst he ran a shocker at Cartmel in June he was impressive at Newbury back in April. Hassle was hammered by Red Tornado here but his latest win at Cartmel signalled he is back to his best and Martin Todhunters, Wisty put in a career best at Kelso to win by 17l last time out. Red Tornado will be hard to beat but he has to give a lot of weight to Hassle, less the jockeys claim and weight stops trains so let’s side with Hassle.
1 unit e/w Hassle
2:55 Newmarket Connolly´s Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f
This is an incredibly exciting race. Not just because of the competition between the best fillies on offer but because we could see a potential super star in the vein of Black Caviar. Make no mistake this is a 2 horse race on paper. However they don’t race on paper so there is always a chance of a surprise, as racing shows us regularly but sometimes you just have to believe your eyes. This week both Richard Fahey – Queen Kindly and Wesley Ward – Lady Aurelia have said their fillies are the best they have ever trained – so whose best is better? Fahey believes physically his filly has caught up but Frankie Dettori who is looking after the filly for Ward says the Lady has grown again. We have a feeling that Lady Aurelia is the fastest 5f horse in the world, and she was simply stunning at Royal Ascot and if she gets beaten it will only be the extra furlong but hey we all love a champion and its possible she may be the best. At 4/5 she looks great value.
5 units win Lady Aurelia
Charlie Mann’s Gowanauthat is looking for a very impressive six timer and every run has been better than the previous one. He comes here fit and full of confidence. It’s possible though that this might be a bit sharp for him and its definitely another step up in class. Neil King’s Princeton Royale is capable of winning a race like this as is Peter Beaumont’s Dineur. Father Edward, for the inform Pipe yard was very impressive at Cartmel but was clobbered 13lbs for that success which seems harsh. The horse we are most keen on is Presenting Arms from the Harry Fry stable who loves good ground and rarely runs a bad race, with the biggest fear Fox Appeal whose 2nd to Thomas Crapper was the best form on offer, so let’s back them both
1 unit e/w Presenting Arms | 1 unit e/w Fox Appeal
3:30 Newmarket – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f
This is an intriguing race from a form perspective. Mehmas tried 7f and didn’t get that trip strongly but took all before him over 6f and has his supporters. On what they have done to date Blue Point sits above the rest. His win at York was a substantial run and should he come on again in only his 5th race he will take all the beating but you don’t need us to tell you that. He is the favourite. The only two horses we can see to challenge him are, Intelligence Cross, who has to improve a further 5lbs and for the Godolphin Horse to stand still and Silver Line who is the best, least exposed in the race, who you could argue, could improve a bundle. Because the favourite is so short there is good each way value here so let’s take advantage.
2 units win Blue Point | 1 unit e/w Intelligence Cross
4:10 Newmarket Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f
If there is a sweet spot for this race its between 8 stone 8lbs and 9 stone 4lbs and if we are right that means we are looking at 19 of the 35 who can win. So let’s start on that basis. We want a horse who was placed or won last time out and that takes out another 12 horses, leaving just 7. Now from those seven who remain we are looking for a horse who has, or will, run 10f strongly and has run well in a big field. That eliminates another 3 getting us down to 4 potential horses. They are, Banksea, just denied in a cracker at York, Dolphin Vista for Richard Fahey, Ed Dunlop’s Dark Red and Treasury Notes for the Tudhope and O’Meara team. As they will probably split in to two groups we want chances on both sides of the track – thus we will back three at these big prices.
1 unit e/w Banksea | 1 unit e/w Treasury Notes | 1 unit e/w Dark Red