RaceBets 2016 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Night Preview & Tips

What an outstanding array of equine talent from across the globe on show. The best of the best line-up in a superb showdown at the quirky Santa Anita track. The one thing you never fail to marvel at is the speed that these races are run at and the amazing athletes that these horses are.

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RaceBets Breeders Cup Saturday Night Preview & Tips7:05 – 14 Hands Winery Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Dirt) 1m110y

Who are the big players in this 2yo race, a race that is simply laden with winners and quality trainers and their horses. With 12 runners the draw will be important as will those who can race with the pace and for those reasons we are going to put a line through both Daddys Lil Darling and Noted and Quoted (maybe the best horse in the race) who have been unkindly drawn with the former having given best to Dancing Rages already this season, who is slightly better drawn in 8.

Todd Pletcher’s Sweet Loretta is ideally drawn in 5 and has the services of Javier Castellano and after a good win last time out may find the race set up for her by With Honours, who was beaten by Noted and Quoted last time out. They were drawn a lot closer together in one and two last time out, not so this time. There might be a chance Sweet Loretta finds this trip at the end of her stamina but she should get it. A lot is thought of the twice raced Union Strike and Yellow Agate, both undefeated but they don’t look as convincing as the Pletcher runner.

1 unit e/w Union Strike | 1 unit e/w Sweet Loretta

7:43 Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) 1m2f

Thirteen runners go to post in this 10f Turf battle and again it would be a big shock if this wasn’t won by a European horse. The problem for the locals is that none of them have run a big enough figure to feature unless something goes wrong with all of the European horses and that’s unlikely. Sea Calisi is a daughter of Youmzain and will be running on at the end but needs further than this.

Lady Eli has a chance of running a place as her best run was at 10 furlongs and that puts her in with place chances for Chad Brown and that exhausts the US runners. Then we have Pretty Perfect who again is probably the pace maker for Coolmore but they better not ignore her up front. Queens Trust whose best run this year is over 10f when she was just behind Minding at Goodwood comes here with optimism and finally Seventh Heaven who, should she run to the level when she beat Found at York, would walk this but she was well below form last time out.

Seventh Heaven will rightly be short but we will side with the Cheveley Park Runner and Chad Browns Horse as well as Sir Michael Stoute’s filly against the O’Brien favourite.

1 unit e/w Queens Trust | 1 unit e/w Lady Eli

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8:21 Twinspires Breeders´ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 6f

Now this is a burn up. If you want to see how horses are meant to leave the gates watch this. They are electric. Drefong ran a massive figure at Saratoga but that was over 7f and the question is does he have the toe to get to the front with these speed balls. If he does then they won’t run him down. Joking seems a huge price for a horse who won a Group1 last time out with the second having won since and franking the form.

AP Indian though might just be the real deal. Nothing has gone as fast over 7f as he did at Saratoga back in August and his 6f run at Keeneland was a good tune- up, winning a Group 2 in early October. Lord Nelson ran a blinder here to win last time out over this trip and he is looking for a 5 timer. As a four year old he seems to have it in him to get even better at sprinting.

2 units e/w Lord Nelson  | 2 units e/w A P Indian

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9:05 Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 6f110y

Another chance for European success as we go on the turf again and this 6f track with its shute start means that the draw is less important. What is important is a good start and track position because its slightly downhill until they join the main track and horses build up a head of steam and are hard to pull back. Our shortlist included one US runner and that is the globe trotting, Mongolian Saturday but you have to go back to this time last year to find his best form. Having said that his comeback win at Keeneland was very good and suggests he might have improved again. If so he is a live chance.

The others are Karar, who chased home Limato at Chantilly having led most of the way over 7f in France, Suedois who was third in that race and drops back to 6f as well, Home of the Brave who has only excelled at 7f but has figures to say if sharp enough he could be competitive and Washington DC for whom the step back up to 6f should be right up his street. He is our European favourite to get the best of this field but he won’t want to be tardy away or the race could be gone before he gets going.

1 unit e/w Washington DC | 1 unit e/w Mongolian Saturday

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9:43 Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Dirt) 1m110y

Who is the next superstar to come out of the pack and dare to dream of a triple crown. Not This Time was such an easy winner at Churchill Downs back in September in a Group 3 that connections were right to have a go at this race. It might be a bit hot though for the Romans horse.

Practical Joke and Syndergaard were only separated by a nose at Belmont and that form looks rock solid but the run style and the ease of victory make our preference for Gormley who comfortably beat Klimt last time out and should get to the front from 7 box if Victor Espinoza wants the lead. He may not have the scope to run a triple crown next year but he might just be too quick for these on this speed bias track.

2 units e/w Gormley

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10:22 Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f

This race has been all about Found in the lead up and rightly so. She, being the Arc Winner over this trip who seems to have an Iron constitution and only just beaten at Ascot by Almanzor. Highland Reel wasn’t that far behind in the Arc and has had a decent break since and he ran his best race at this trip.

Ectot and Flintshire fought out a finish last time out at Belmont but Ectot was far too strong then and Flintshire’s price is all about good quick ground and coming in to form, he isn’t yet. Mondialiste is the interesting one as he tries 12f for the first time. He won well at Arlington in the million and then had a nice tune up race over a mile at Keeneland. It’s the two O’Brien horse’s to lose and whilst the heart says Found, the head says Highland Reel

2 units e/w Highland Reel

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11:01 Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Dirt) 7f

Friday could give as a good clue to this race as the favourite Carina Mia was just 5l behind Songbird last time out. We will know just how good that form is very soon. She drops back to 7f here but she is tough. At the odds Haveyougoneaway looks better value with proven form over 7f and a good win at Saratoga last time out where she beat the favourite in this race although Carina Mia had a very wide trip and tried to lead. By the Moon split the two of them in that race and will be thereabouts. Where it not for the draw of 11, Irish Jasper would be attractive and double figure odds as her last run was her best. The value seems to be with the Thomas Morley runner.

2 units e/w Haveyougoneaway | 1 unit e/w Irish Jasper

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11:40 Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

This is being billed as a match race between Tepin and Limato and whilst both certainly have the right reasons to suggest they could fight out the finish there is more to this race than these two. Tepin was beaten last time out and Julien Leparoux would not have been put up again if he was our horse after leaving so much to do at Keeneland but it does show the fallibility that exists and this mile track on turf is tight. Limato was imperious at Chantilly but that’s was 7f not a mile and whilst this is an easy mile Limato was an average 4th when tried last time at this trip but the ground will really suit.

No such fears for Dutch Connection who excels at a mile but has to improve to win an average running of this contest of which the same can be said for Spectre the German raider. Midnight Storm could run big for the home team and there must be some confidence in Miss Temple City after her win last time out. Finally there is Alice Springs who has an ideal draw, keeps finding when she has to and barring a poor run at Deauville has beaten all in front of her. Surely she can’t be out of the frame. It would be lovely to see Limato explode but at the prices we have to be with the O’Brien horse as well.

2 units e/w Limato | 2 units e/w Alice Springs

12:35 Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f

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chrome-breeders-cup-classicMake no mistake, this is a three horse race. The incredible thing is that you can’t definitely say which of the three it will be and we have three horses running in one race, under optimum conditions, who have all run an RPR figure of greater than 130. It’s rare to get one horse do that in a year extremely rare to get three and it hasn’t happened, well – forever as far as we can see where they all line up in one amazing race. Of course those three are the incredible California Chrome for Art Sherman and his merry band of $10,000 breeders, who dotted up in the Pacific and recorded 133 without turning a hair. How good is he?

The enigmatic, Godolphin horse Frosted who recorded 130 in the Metropolitan and Arrogate for Bob Baffert who put up 131 in the Metropolitan. It’s just fabulous stuff and we have discussed these horses in detail in the office, like children discussing super hero’s and which one has the best powers. It’s just a feast and like all these top races you just hope there are no hard luck stories and they all run their race. To find a winner it is nit picking but that’s what we have to do.

We think we can rule out Frosted because he should have gone for the dirt mile, this stretches him and it might be unkind but we think he is a bridle horse and doesn’t like the fight (boy can those words come back to haunt you!) Arrogate is the young pretender and whilst his 13l runaway victory at Saratoga was mighty fine there is a suspicion that the inside Golden Highway, the paucity of opposition and the fact that Saratoga form doesn’t always hold up well in the Breeders Cup, suggests he may not be ready to win this just yet.

Which leaves us with California Chrome. A woeful 2015 had everyone concerned scratching their heads but after recovering from illness and travels, boy has he made up for lost time. He is the best looking athlete we have seen on an American track and if you cant tell from the tone of this narrative, where we are going with our argument then you aren’t a punter or horse lover. He is the real deal. Watch his run in the Pacific and then see how much of your hard earned you want to have on this horse.

We simply can’t wait for this race and are all in. We have one small reservation that stops this from being a maximum, maximum bet and that is Victor Espinoza. Out least favourite big time jock in the US. If anyone can get it wrong he can but we don’t think even he can get this beat. The horse would probably even win at Brighton!!!, that’s how good he is.

10 units win California Chrome


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