Racebets Saturday Channel 4 Racing Tips
It’s another great Saturday racing on Channel 4 with the highlight being the 32 Red Sprint Cup. This race is supported by a couple of good Group 3’s and some strong handicaps. It promises to be a great days punting.
2:40 Ascot – Albert Bartlett Handicap Cl2 7f
Older horses have dominated this race since its inception in 2011 and no horse has won carrying more than 9 stone, so that seems a reasonable place to start. We have our eye on Von Blucher, so unlucky last time when just pipped by our selection. He will enjoy this stiff finish and a true end to end gallop, as will the well handicapped Lincoln who looked as though he was coming to hand again two runs back and then put in a strange one at Doncaster but is a stone below his winning mark at this time last year. Finally Muhadathat for whom we have been strong on more than one occasion this year. Jacks Revenge is worthy of a second look for George Baker. On balance we will side with the more obvious choice of John Gosden’s runner and the less obvious choice of Mick Channons.
1 unit e/w Von Blucher | 1 unit e/w Lincoln
3:00 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m
Custom Cut is frustrating but his recent 3rd to Scottish now looks like a run that signals he might be back to his best again. Anyone who reads this blog will know we really like Gabrial but it’s possible he has been on the go for a long time and just starting to lose his form so we won’t be supporting him today. We have been reluctant to tip up Convey, despite his undoubted ability, because he is a bit in and out, however Sir Michael might have hit on a formula now that works but his head carriage doesn’t look like a horse who wants to win in a battle. Tupi is an improver and probably capable of winning one of these at some stage but not this one and Hathal is no doubt talented but after a year off we need to see the retention of that ability before we back this one. David O’Meara took a while to wind up, as did Custom Cut but we think they have it together and will take this race
2 units e/w Custom Cut
Dal Harraild has gone up 4lbs for a tight win at Goodwood and whilst the form of that race has been ok it hasn’t set the betting world alight and this might just be a mark beyond the William Haggas charge. Danehill Kodiac defeated Combative on Shergar Cup day and they were well clear, suggesting they both have a strong future but the handicapper didn’t miss either of them with 6lbs and 4lbs respectively. Its seems harsh. New Caledonia tries this trip for the first time, one that he could relish, if so he will take all the beating. We will gamble on Mark Johnston’s horse being as tough as nails and triumphing at this journey
1 unit e/w New Caledonia
3:30 Haydock – Handicap Cl2 1m6f
Magic Circle has a high win to run ratio and Ralph Beckett will feel this is a race within his range. He has to improve again to win but at 4 he remains unexposed at these trips. Montaly looks interesting with the Balding horses running so well and Oisin Murphy on board, who is just excellent and at the bottom of the handicap Walpole was our selection last week when he was withdrawn and we can select him knowing that if conditions soften Hugo Palmer will take him out again. Suegioo is getting ready to win a race and this might well be the one if he can keep tabs on the pace.
1 unit e/w Magic Circle | 1 unit e/w Walpole
3:45 Kempton – September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f
I’m not sure many people can believe that Fire Fighting is lining up again this week, he must have some resolution. He didn’t quite look the same last week and we rule him out at our peril. Arab Spring hasn’t set the world alight this year like we thought he would but there have been excuses as both his latest starts were over 10.5f the most recent in Group 1 company. This is his level and trip. Sky Hunter is a class act but after 300 days off and a bigger agenda than this he may not be fired up to win this.
2 units win Arab Spring
4:00 Haydock – Friendly Handicap Cl2 5f
Dutch Masterpiece is going to pop up this year in a race like this, let’s hope it’s not this one but we will keep an eye on him. Any rain overnight will help Seve but he is not at his best on quick ground. Powerallied ran a shocker last time out without explanation and that is not his true running. Robot Boy has been brave in defeat and probably deserves a win. This quick 5f will suit him better and he is on a winning mark. Lightscameraction ran a blinder at Chester for Gaye Kelleway and might be the option. We need two against the field.
1 unit e/w Robot Boy | 1 unit e/w Lightscameraction
4:15 Kempton – London Mile Handicap Cl2 1m
These finals are notoriously tough because they all come wanting to win and preserve their handicap mark in the lead up to the race. We need to concentrate on four in this race. Dommersen for John Gosden who brings a progressive winning profile to the table and the plum draw of 1 will be on many short lists and ours is no exception. William Hagga’s, Afjaan also looks the type that might jump out of this company in to listed very soon but his draw is a poor one for this race and William Jarvis’s Wimpole Hall is also a likely type. It’s possible Sirius Prospect is better over 7f but he is running really well at the moment. It’s all about Dommersen for us. The others will find it difficult to overcome their draw.
2 units e/w Dommersen
4:30 Haydock – Sprint Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f
What a cracking sprint. Let’s start with Limato, Magical Memory, Quiet Refelection, Strathburn, The Tin Man, Don Juan Triumphant and Dancing Star – have we named the winner in this group? Probably but that’s why this race is so good. Limato’s performance at Newmarket was simply wonderful and if he produces that run then he will win. 5f was too short at York but advertised his ability to quicken at the end of a race and he was the only one gaining on the winner at the line. Four 3yo’s have won this race in the last ten years and their chances are supported by both Quiet Reflection and Dancing Star. The problem is that Limato has already accounted for these and we see no reason why that form should be reversed. The Tin Man has an explosive turn of foot but he has to improve another 7lbs to beat Limato at his best. It could happen. Strathburn is ready for this race again this year after almost winning last year but that was on rain softened ground. He might get that again in which case he comes in to the reckoning but not on good or quicker ground. It’s unoriginal but on dry ground Limato wins
3 units e/w Limato